September 24, 2021
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nick Diaz | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 23 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 061 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Robbie Lawler's 8-fight experience advantage (23 vs 15 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Robbie Lawler for the expected result. Had Nick Diaz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Nick Diaz | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 031 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nick Diaz | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:44 | 0:44 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 199 | 1 404 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +56 |
Robbie Lawler gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Nick Diaz | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 150 | 131 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 339 | 221 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 150 | 131 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 244 | 1 349 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Nick Diaz controlled the striking through superior volume (150 vs 131 total strikes), significant strike advantage (150 vs 131), superior accuracy (44.2% vs 59.3%). However, since Nick Diaz lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Robbie Lawler's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Nick Diaz | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 113 | 1 239 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Nick Diaz | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 2 429 | 392 |
| Activity ELO | 1 120 | 1 334 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +9 |
Robbie Lawler demonstrated extended layoff with 392 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Robbie Lawler capitalized on this activity level, while Nick Diaz's 2429-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nick Diaz | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 049 | 1 185 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +16 |
Robbie Lawler started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nick Diaz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nick Diaz | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.