September 2, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 963 | 992 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Peter Sobotta's 3-fight experience advantage (7 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Peter Sobotta for the expected result. Had Nicolas Dalby pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 994 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 950 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Peter Sobotta earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 52 | 76 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 48 | 83 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 900 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -90 | +90 |
Peter Sobotta controlled the striking exchanges with 83 vs 48 total strikes, 38 vs 14 significant strikes, 50.0% vs 26.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Peter Sobotta capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:28 | 10:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 17 |
| Ground ELO | 919 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -90 | +90 |
Peter Sobotta dominated Nicolas Dalby on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 10:22 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 146 | 294 |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 999 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Peter Sobotta demonstrated standard activity with 294 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Peter Sobotta capitalized on this activity level, while Nicolas Dalby's 146-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +25 |
Peter Sobotta started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nicolas Dalby is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 994 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.