April 26, 2025
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 134 | 1 270 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Randy Brown's 6-fight experience advantage (20 vs 14 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Randy Brown for the expected result. Had Nicolas Dalby pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 057 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:39 | 1:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 249 | 1 486 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +48 |
Randy Brown gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 54 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 74 | 114 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 58 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 138 | 1 403 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
Randy Brown controlled the striking exchanges with 54 vs 26 significant strikes, 47.4% vs 35.1% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Randy Brown capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:22 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 156 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Randy Brown did not secure a significant ground advantage against Nicolas Dalby on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 309 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 152 | 1 322 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +27 |
Randy Brown demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Randy Brown capitalized on this activity level, while Nicolas Dalby's 309-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 093 | 1 203 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +18 |
Randy Brown started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nicolas Dalby is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 057 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

