Nicolas Dalby vs Randy Brown

April 26, 2025

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1130
(-24)
Nicolas Dalby
Winner: Randy Brown
KO/TKO
Round 2 • 1:39

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Nicolas Dalby-24
Randy Brown+29
1275
(+29)
Randy Brown

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Nicolas Dalby: -24Randy Brown: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricNicolas DalbyRandy Brown
Total UFC Fights1420
Experience Gap-66
Experience ELO1 1341 270
ELO Change-24+24
💡

What Happened

Randy Brown's 6-fight experience advantage (20 vs 14 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Randy Brown for the expected result. Had Nicolas Dalby pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Nicolas Dalby: -18Randy Brown: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricNicolas DalbyRandy Brown
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0571 150
ELO Change-18+18
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Nicolas Dalby: -23Randy Brown: +48

Performance Statistics

MetricNicolas DalbyRandy Brown
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round22
Time of Finish1:391:39
Win Type ELO1 2491 486
ELO Change-23+48
💡

What Happened

Randy Brown gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Nicolas Dalby: -60Randy Brown: +60

Performance Statistics

MetricNicolas DalbyRandy Brown
Significant Strikes Landed2654
Significant Strikes Attempted74114
Total Strikes Landed4058
Knockdowns Scored11
Striking ELO1 1381 403
ELO Change-60+60
💡

What Happened

Randy Brown controlled the striking exchanges with 54 vs 26 significant strikes, 47.4% vs 35.1% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Randy Brown capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Nicolas Dalby: -20Randy Brown: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricNicolas DalbyRandy Brown
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time1:220:00
Ground Strikes Landed10
Ground ELO1 1561 213
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

Randy Brown did not secure a significant ground advantage against Nicolas Dalby on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Nicolas Dalby: -14Randy Brown: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricNicolas DalbyRandy Brown
Days Since Last Fight309140
Activity ELO1 1521 322
ELO Change-14+27
💡

What Happened

Randy Brown demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Randy Brown capitalized on this activity level, while Nicolas Dalby's 309-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Nicolas Dalby: -17Randy Brown: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricNicolas DalbyRandy Brown
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 0931 203
ELO Change-17+18
💡

What Happened

Randy Brown started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nicolas Dalby is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Nicolas Dalby: -18Randy Brown: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricNicolas DalbyRandy Brown
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0571 150
ELO Change-18+18
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.