June 25, 2021
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 24 |
| Experience Gap | -16 | 16 |
| Experience ELO | 1 052 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Tim Means's 16-fight experience advantage (24 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tim Means for the expected result. Had Nicolas Dalby pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 011 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 069 | 1 307 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Tim Means earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 54 | 53 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 116 | 93 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 84 | 94 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 989 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Tim Means slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 57.0% vs 46.6% accuracy. Tim Means capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:31 | 8:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 981 | 1 218 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Tim Means controlled Nicolas Dalby on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 8:03 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | 217 |
| Activity ELO | 1 059 | 1 270 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +13 |
Tim Means demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Tim Means capitalized on this activity level, while Nicolas Dalby's 217-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 022 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +22 |
Tim Means extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nicolas Dalby is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 011 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

