January 20, 2023
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 120 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -25 |
Nicolas Dalby overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (10 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Warlley Alves.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 056 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 135 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Nicolas Dalby receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 119 | 66 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 248 | 144 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 167 | 75 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 096 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Nicolas Dalby dominated the striking exchanges with 167 vs 75 total strikes, 119 vs 66 significant strikes. Nicolas Dalby capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:02 | 2:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 111 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -79 |
Nicolas Dalby controlled Warlley Alves on the ground with 0 takedowns, 4:02 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 183 | 575 |
| Activity ELO | 1 106 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -22 |
Nicolas Dalby demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Nicolas Dalby capitalized on this activity level, while Warlley Alves's 575-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 076 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -22 |
Nicolas Dalby extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Warlley Alves is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 056 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.