April 9, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 998 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Zak Cummings's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Zak Cummings for the expected result. Had Nicolas Dalby pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 001 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 989 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Zak Cummings earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 57 | 56 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 150 | 158 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 69 | 77 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 990 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Zak Cummings controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Zak Cummings capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:07 | 3:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 009 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +56 |
Zak Cummings landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 260 |
| Activity ELO | 1 001 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Zak Cummings demonstrated standard activity with 260 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Zak Cummings capitalized on this activity level, while Nicolas Dalby's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 004 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Zak Cummings extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nicolas Dalby is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nicolas Dalby | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.