March 25, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nik Lentz | Waylon Lowe |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 154 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Nik Lentz's 2-fight experience advantage (6 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nik Lentz for the expected result. Had Waylon Lowe pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Nik Lentz | Waylon Lowe |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 099 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nik Lentz | Waylon Lowe |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:24 | 2:24 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 190 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -28 |
Nik Lentz earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:24, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Waylon Lowe was submitted.
| Metric | Nik Lentz | Waylon Lowe |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 51 | 46 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 91 | 61 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 73 | 53 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 151 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Nik Lentz edged the striking exchanges with 73 vs 53 total strikes, 51 vs 46 significant strikes, 56.0% vs 75.4% accuracy. Nik Lentz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nik Lentz | Waylon Lowe |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:16 | 4:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 307 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Nik Lentz edged out Waylon Lowe on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:16 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Nik Lentz | Waylon Lowe |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 63 |
| Activity ELO | 1 221 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -14 |
Nik Lentz demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nik Lentz capitalized on this activity level, while Waylon Lowe's 63-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nik Lentz | Waylon Lowe |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 121 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -17 |
Nik Lentz extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Waylon Lowe is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nik Lentz | Waylon Lowe |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 099 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

