Nik Lentz vs Waylon Lowe

March 25, 2011

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1168
(+24)
Nik Lentz
Winner: Nik Lentz
Submission
Round 3 • 2:24

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Nik Lentz+24
Waylon Lowe-20
1019
(-20)
Waylon Lowe

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Nik Lentz: +23Waylon Lowe: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricNik LentzWaylon Lowe
Total UFC Fights64
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO1 1541 015
ELO Change+23-23
💡

What Happened

Nik Lentz's 2-fight experience advantage (6 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nik Lentz for the expected result. Had Waylon Lowe pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Nik Lentz: +17Waylon Lowe: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricNik LentzWaylon Lowe
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0991 006
ELO Change+17-17
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Nik Lentz: +42Waylon Lowe: -28

Performance Statistics

MetricNik LentzWaylon Lowe
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round33
Time of Finish2:242:24
Win Type ELO1 1901 001
ELO Change+42-28
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What Happened

Nik Lentz earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:24, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Waylon Lowe was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Nik Lentz: +16Waylon Lowe: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricNik LentzWaylon Lowe
Significant Strikes Landed5146
Significant Strikes Attempted9161
Total Strikes Landed7353
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 151964
ELO Change+16-16
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What Happened

Nik Lentz edged the striking exchanges with 73 vs 53 total strikes, 51 vs 46 significant strikes, 56.0% vs 75.4% accuracy. Nik Lentz capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Nik Lentz: +27Waylon Lowe: -27

Performance Statistics

MetricNik LentzWaylon Lowe
Takedowns Landed04
Takedowns Attempted36
Ground Control Time0:164:30
Ground Strikes Landed72
Ground ELO1 3071 088
ELO Change+27-27
💡

What Happened

Nik Lentz edged out Waylon Lowe on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:16 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Nik Lentz: +28Waylon Lowe: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricNik LentzWaylon Lowe
Days Since Last Fight12663
Activity ELO1 2211 062
ELO Change+28-14
💡

What Happened

Nik Lentz demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nik Lentz capitalized on this activity level, while Waylon Lowe's 63-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Nik Lentz: +24Waylon Lowe: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricNik LentzWaylon Lowe
Win Streak40
Win Streak ELO1 1211 013
ELO Change+24-17
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What Happened

Nik Lentz extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Waylon Lowe is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Nik Lentz: +17Waylon Lowe: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricNik LentzWaylon Lowe
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0991 006
ELO Change+17-17
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.