November 17, 2017
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nik Lentz | Will Brooks |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 19 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 15 | -15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 150 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Nik Lentz's 15-fight experience advantage (19 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nik Lentz for the expected result. Had Will Brooks pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Nik Lentz | Will Brooks |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 098 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nik Lentz | Will Brooks |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:05 | 2:05 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 220 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -24 |
Nik Lentz earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:05, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Will Brooks was submitted.
| Metric | Nik Lentz | Will Brooks |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 82 | 78 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 49 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 142 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Will Brooks controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (49 vs 34), superior accuracy (62.8% vs 41.5%). However, since Will Brooks lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Nik Lentz's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Nik Lentz | Will Brooks |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:46 | 0:45 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 178 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Nik Lentz edged out Will Brooks on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:46 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Nik Lentz | Will Brooks |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 280 | 225 |
| Activity ELO | 1 220 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
Nik Lentz demonstrated standard activity with 280 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Nik Lentz capitalized on this activity level, while Will Brooks's 225-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nik Lentz | Will Brooks |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 129 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -14 |
Nik Lentz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Will Brooks is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nik Lentz | Will Brooks |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 097 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

