March 18, 2022
Light Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nikita Krylov | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 098 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +31 |
Paul Craig overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (13 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Nikita Krylov.
| Metric | Nikita Krylov | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 030 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nikita Krylov | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:57 | 3:57 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 311 | 1 438 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +65 |
Paul Craig earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:57, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Nikita Krylov | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 25 | 3 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 254 | 1 301 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Nikita Krylov controlled the striking through superior volume (30 vs 11 total strikes), significant strike advantage (19 vs 2). However, since Nikita Krylov lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Paul Craig's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Nikita Krylov | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:49 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 16 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 108 | 1 287 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Paul Craig controlled Nikita Krylov on the ground with 1 takedown, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Nikita Krylov | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 385 | 281 |
| Activity ELO | 1 152 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Paul Craig demonstrated standard activity with 281 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Paul Craig capitalized on this activity level, while Nikita Krylov's 385-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nikita Krylov | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 069 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +29 |
Paul Craig extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nikita Krylov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nikita Krylov | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 029 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.