March 10, 2023
Catch Weight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nikita Krylov | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 18 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 207 | 1 192 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Nikita Krylov's 8-fight experience advantage (18 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nikita Krylov for the expected result. Had Ryan Spann pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Nikita Krylov | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 098 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nikita Krylov | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:38 | 3:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 549 | 1 433 |
| ELO Change | +68 | -41 |
Nikita Krylov earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:38, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Nikita Krylov | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 24 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 527 | 1 260 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Nikita Krylov edged the striking exchanges with 58.3% vs 45.5% accuracy. Nikita Krylov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nikita Krylov | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:39 | 0:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 397 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | +121 | -121 |
Nikita Krylov dominated Ryan Spann on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 2:39 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Nikita Krylov | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 288 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -17 |
Nikita Krylov demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nikita Krylov capitalized on this activity level, while Ryan Spann's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nikita Krylov | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 149 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -22 |
Nikita Krylov extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ryan Spann is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nikita Krylov | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 096 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

