Nikita Krylov vs Ryan Spann

March 10, 2023

Catch Weight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1289
(+44)
Nikita Krylov
Winner: Nikita Krylov
Submission
Round 1 • 3:38

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Nikita Krylov+44
Ryan Spann-38
1180
(-38)
Ryan Spann

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Nikita Krylov: +37Ryan Spann: -37

Performance Statistics

MetricNikita KrylovRyan Spann
Total UFC Fights1810
Experience Gap8-8
Experience ELO1 2071 192
ELO Change+37-37
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What Happened

Nikita Krylov's 8-fight experience advantage (18 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nikita Krylov for the expected result. Had Ryan Spann pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Nikita Krylov: +22Ryan Spann: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricNikita KrylovRyan Spann
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0981 078
ELO Change+22-22
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Nikita Krylov: +68Ryan Spann: -41

Performance Statistics

MetricNikita KrylovRyan Spann
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish3:383:38
Win Type ELO1 5491 433
ELO Change+68-41
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What Happened

Nikita Krylov earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:38, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Nikita Krylov: +20Ryan Spann: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricNikita KrylovRyan Spann
Significant Strikes Landed75
Significant Strikes Attempted1211
Total Strikes Landed245
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 5271 260
ELO Change+20-20
💡

What Happened

Nikita Krylov edged the striking exchanges with 58.3% vs 45.5% accuracy. Nikita Krylov capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Nikita Krylov: +121Ryan Spann: -121

Performance Statistics

MetricNikita KrylovRyan Spann
Takedowns Landed21
Takedowns Attempted22
Ground Control Time2:390:32
Ground Strikes Landed10
Ground ELO1 3971 110
ELO Change+121-121
💡

What Happened

Nikita Krylov dominated Ryan Spann on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 2:39 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Nikita Krylov: +35Ryan Spann: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricNikita KrylovRyan Spann
Days Since Last Fight141119
Activity ELO1 2881 177
ELO Change+35-17
💡

What Happened

Nikita Krylov demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nikita Krylov capitalized on this activity level, while Ryan Spann's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Nikita Krylov: +28Ryan Spann: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricNikita KrylovRyan Spann
Win Streak30
Win Streak ELO1 1491 112
ELO Change+28-22
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What Happened

Nikita Krylov extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ryan Spann is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Nikita Krylov: +23Ryan Spann: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricNikita KrylovRyan Spann
Weight ClassN/AN/A
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0961 075
ELO Change+23-23
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.