July 7, 2023
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Niko Price | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 25 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 065 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +32 |
Robbie Lawler's 9-fight experience advantage (25 vs 16 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Robbie Lawler for the expected result. Had Niko Price pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Niko Price | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 012 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Niko Price | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:38 | 0:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 230 | 1 428 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +86 |
Robbie Lawler secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:38 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Niko Price | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 7 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 036 | 1 317 |
| ELO Change | -83 | +83 |
Robbie Lawler controlled the striking exchanges with 8 vs 2 significant strikes, 80.0% vs 28.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Robbie Lawler capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Niko Price | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 024 | 1 220 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Niko Price | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | 371 |
| Activity ELO | 1 190 | 1 318 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +14 |
Robbie Lawler demonstrated extended layoff with 371 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Robbie Lawler capitalized on this activity level, while Niko Price's 217-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Niko Price | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 033 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +16 |
Robbie Lawler started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Niko Price is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Niko Price | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 006 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.