October 27, 2017
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Niko Price | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 096 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Vicente Luque's 3-fight experience advantage (7 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Vicente Luque for the expected result. Had Niko Price pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Niko Price | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 022 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Niko Price | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:08 | 4:08 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 184 | 1 285 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +67 |
Vicente Luque earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:08, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Niko Price was submitted.
| Metric | Niko Price | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 61 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 99 | 113 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 26 | 61 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 120 | 1 251 |
| ELO Change | -84 | +84 |
Vicente Luque controlled the striking exchanges with 61 vs 26 total strikes, 61 vs 25 significant strikes, 54.0% vs 25.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Vicente Luque capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Niko Price | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 024 | 1 260 |
| ELO Change | -87 | +87 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Niko Price | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 224 |
| Activity ELO | 1 045 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +19 |
Vicente Luque demonstrated standard activity with 224 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Vicente Luque capitalized on this activity level, while Niko Price's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Niko Price | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 029 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Vicente Luque started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Niko Price is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Niko Price | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 022 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

