May 8, 2020
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Niko Price | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 144 | 1 230 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Vicente Luque's 3-fight experience advantage (14 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Vicente Luque for the expected result. Had Niko Price pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Niko Price | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 048 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Niko Price | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:37 | 3:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 360 | 1 443 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Vicente Luque gained a finish with a TKO - Doctor's Stoppage in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Niko Price | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 129 | 130 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 291 | 237 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 144 | 130 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 196 | 1 387 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Vicente Luque controlled the striking exchanges with 54.9% vs 44.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Vicente Luque capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Niko Price | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:49 | 0:25 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 092 | 1 283 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
Vicente Luque landed 1 knockdown followed by 3 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Niko Price | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 210 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 1 189 | 1 325 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +19 |
Vicente Luque demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Vicente Luque capitalized on this activity level, while Niko Price's 210-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Niko Price | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 071 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +16 |
Vicente Luque started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Niko Price is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Niko Price | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 047 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.