January 12, 2024
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nikolas Motta | Tom Nolan |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 014 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Nikolas Motta's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nikolas Motta for the expected result. Had Tom Nolan pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Nikolas Motta | Tom Nolan |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 006 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nikolas Motta | Tom Nolan |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:03 | 1:03 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 124 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +92 | -38 |
Nikolas Motta earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:03, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Nikolas Motta | Tom Nolan |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 40 | 20 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 21 | 12 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 055 | 883 |
| ELO Change | +117 | -117 |
Nikolas Motta controlled the striking exchanges with 21 vs 12 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Nikolas Motta capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nikolas Motta | Tom Nolan |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:09 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 021 | 941 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -59 |
Nikolas Motta landed 1 knockdown followed by 13 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Nikolas Motta | Tom Nolan |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 56 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 103 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +106 | -21 |
Nikolas Motta demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 56 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Nikolas Motta capitalized on this activity level, while Tom Nolan's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nikolas Motta | Tom Nolan |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 012 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Nikolas Motta started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tom Nolan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nikolas Motta | Tom Nolan |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 005 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.