February 24, 2023
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nurullo Aliev | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 071 | 938 |
| ELO Change | +71 | -71 |
Nurullo Aliev overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 4 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Rafael Alves.
| Metric | Nurullo Aliev | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 020 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nurullo Aliev | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Majority | Decision - Majority |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 020 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
The Decision - Majority showed mixed judging, with Nurullo Aliev earning reduced bonuses for the unclear victory margin.
| Metric | Nurullo Aliev | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 45 | 17 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 92 | 25 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 055 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
Nurullo Aliev dominated the striking exchanges with 92 vs 25 total strikes, 19 vs 6 significant strikes. Nurullo Aliev capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nurullo Aliev | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:51 | 1:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 18 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 089 | 901 |
| ELO Change | +89 | -89 |
Nurullo Aliev dominated Rafael Alves on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 10:51 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Nurullo Aliev | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 211 |
| Activity ELO | 1 022 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Nurullo Aliev demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Nurullo Aliev capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Alves's 211-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nurullo Aliev | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Nurullo Aliev started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Alves is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nurullo Aliev | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 020 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.