Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Thibault Gouti

June 17, 2016

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1088
(+26)
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Winner: Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Submission
Round 3 • 2:28

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Olivier Aubin-Mercier+26
Thibault Gouti-23
925
(-23)
Thibault Gouti

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Olivier Aubin-Mercier: +24Thibault Gouti: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricOlivier Aubin-MercierThibault Gouti
Total UFC Fights62
Experience Gap4-4
Experience ELO1 073941
ELO Change+24-24
💡

What Happened

Olivier Aubin-Mercier's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Olivier Aubin-Mercier for the expected result. Had Thibault Gouti pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Olivier Aubin-Mercier: +19Thibault Gouti: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricOlivier Aubin-MercierThibault Gouti
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 038959
ELO Change+19-19
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Olivier Aubin-Mercier: +37Thibault Gouti: -25

Performance Statistics

MetricOlivier Aubin-MercierThibault Gouti
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round33
Time of Finish2:282:28
Win Type ELO1 139927
ELO Change+37-25
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What Happened

Olivier Aubin-Mercier earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:28, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Thibault Gouti was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Olivier Aubin-Mercier: +14Thibault Gouti: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricOlivier Aubin-MercierThibault Gouti
Significant Strikes Landed4429
Significant Strikes Attempted6169
Total Strikes Landed7463
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 073854
ELO Change+14-14
💡

What Happened

Olivier Aubin-Mercier controlled the striking exchanges with 44 vs 29 significant strikes, 72.1% vs 42.0% accuracy. Olivier Aubin-Mercier capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Olivier Aubin-Mercier: +44Thibault Gouti: -44

Performance Statistics

MetricOlivier Aubin-MercierThibault Gouti
Takedowns Landed30
Takedowns Attempted80
Ground Control Time7:340:27
Ground Strikes Landed2111
Ground ELO1 200839
ELO Change+44-44
💡

What Happened

Olivier Aubin-Mercier dominated Thibault Gouti on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 7:34 of control time, 21 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Olivier Aubin-Mercier: +32Thibault Gouti: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricOlivier Aubin-MercierThibault Gouti
Days Since Last Fight140112
Activity ELO1 091962
ELO Change+32-16
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What Happened

Olivier Aubin-Mercier demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Olivier Aubin-Mercier capitalized on this activity level, while Thibault Gouti's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Olivier Aubin-Mercier: +20Thibault Gouti: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricOlivier Aubin-MercierThibault Gouti
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 050960
ELO Change+20-18
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What Happened

Olivier Aubin-Mercier started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thibault Gouti is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Olivier Aubin-Mercier: +19Thibault Gouti: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricOlivier Aubin-MercierThibault Gouti
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 038959
ELO Change+19-19
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.