June 17, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 073 | 941 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Olivier Aubin-Mercier's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Olivier Aubin-Mercier for the expected result. Had Thibault Gouti pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 038 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:28 | 2:28 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 139 | 927 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -25 |
Olivier Aubin-Mercier earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:28, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Thibault Gouti was submitted.
| Metric | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 44 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 61 | 69 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 74 | 63 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 073 | 854 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Olivier Aubin-Mercier controlled the striking exchanges with 44 vs 29 significant strikes, 72.1% vs 42.0% accuracy. Olivier Aubin-Mercier capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:34 | 0:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 21 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 1 200 | 839 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Olivier Aubin-Mercier dominated Thibault Gouti on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 7:34 of control time, 21 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 091 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -16 |
Olivier Aubin-Mercier demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Olivier Aubin-Mercier capitalized on this activity level, while Thibault Gouti's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 050 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Olivier Aubin-Mercier started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thibault Gouti is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 038 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

