August 22, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Tony Sims |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 072 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Olivier Aubin-Mercier's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Olivier Aubin-Mercier for the expected result. Had Tony Sims pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Tony Sims |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 042 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Tony Sims |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 148 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Olivier Aubin-Mercier earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Tony Sims |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 29 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 76 | 46 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 103 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Tony Sims controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (46 vs 76 total strikes), significant strike advantage (23 vs 3), superior accuracy (79.3% vs 37.5%). However, since Tony Sims lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Olivier Aubin-Mercier's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Tony Sims |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 12:06 | 0:55 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 20 |
| Ground ELO | 1 234 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
Olivier Aubin-Mercier controlled Tony Sims on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 12:06 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Tony Sims |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 120 | 57 |
| Activity ELO | 1 081 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -20 |
Olivier Aubin-Mercier demonstrated solid activity levels with 120 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Olivier Aubin-Mercier capitalized on this activity level, while Tony Sims's 57-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Tony Sims |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 054 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -21 |
Olivier Aubin-Mercier extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tony Sims is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Tony Sims |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 042 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

