December 9, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Omari Akhmedov | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 107 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Omari Akhmedov | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 042 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Omari Akhmedov | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:18 | 2:18 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 189 | 1 241 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +110 |
Sergio Moraes gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Omari Akhmedov | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 117 | 69 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 22 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 116 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -135 | +135 |
Omari Akhmedov controlled the striking through superior volume (38 vs 22 total strikes), significant strike advantage (35 vs 21), 1 knockdown. However, since Omari Akhmedov lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Sergio Moraes's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Omari Akhmedov | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:51 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 130 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Sergio Moraes landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Omari Akhmedov | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 188 | 244 |
| Activity ELO | 1 063 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +27 |
Sergio Moraes demonstrated standard activity with 244 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Sergio Moraes capitalized on this activity level, while Omari Akhmedov's 188-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Omari Akhmedov | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 056 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +31 |
Sergio Moraes extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Omari Akhmedov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Omari Akhmedov | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 042 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.