Omari Akhmedov vs Tom Breese

January 19, 2021

Middleweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1227
(+44)
Omari Akhmedov
Winner: Omari Akhmedov
Submission
Round 2 • 1:41

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Omari Akhmedov+44
Tom Breese-40
1085
(-40)
Tom Breese

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Omari Akhmedov: +24Tom Breese: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricOmari AkhmedovTom Breese
Total UFC Fights138
Experience Gap5-5
Experience ELO1 2331 105
ELO Change+24-24
💡

What Happened

Omari Akhmedov's 5-fight experience advantage (13 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Omari Akhmedov for the expected result. Had Tom Breese pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Omari Akhmedov: +18Tom Breese: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricOmari AkhmedovTom Breese
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1201 038
ELO Change+18-18
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Omari Akhmedov: +61Tom Breese: -39

Performance Statistics

MetricOmari AkhmedovTom Breese
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish1:411:41
Win Type ELO1 3491 225
ELO Change+61-39
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What Happened

Omari Akhmedov earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:41, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Tom Breese was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Omari Akhmedov: +104Tom Breese: -104

Performance Statistics

MetricOmari AkhmedovTom Breese
Significant Strikes Landed251
Significant Strikes Attempted384
Total Strikes Landed736
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 2921 100
ELO Change+104-104
💡

What Happened

Omari Akhmedov dominated the striking exchanges with 73 vs 6 total strikes, 25 vs 1 significant strikes, 65.8% vs 25.0% accuracy. Omari Akhmedov capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Omari Akhmedov: +80Tom Breese: -80

Performance Statistics

MetricOmari AkhmedovTom Breese
Takedowns Landed20
Takedowns Attempted51
Ground Control Time4:341:00
Ground Strikes Landed210
Ground ELO1 3591 032
ELO Change+80-80
💡

What Happened

Omari Akhmedov dominated Tom Breese on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:34 of control time, 21 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Omari Akhmedov: +30Tom Breese: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricOmari AkhmedovTom Breese
Days Since Last Fight166103
Activity ELO1 1991 085
ELO Change+30-17
💡

What Happened

Omari Akhmedov demonstrated solid activity levels with 166 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Omari Akhmedov capitalized on this activity level, while Tom Breese's 103-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Omari Akhmedov: +19Tom Breese: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricOmari AkhmedovTom Breese
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 1511 056
ELO Change+19-17
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What Happened

Omari Akhmedov started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tom Breese is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Omari Akhmedov: +19Tom Breese: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricOmari AkhmedovTom Breese
Weight ClassMiddleweightMiddleweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1121 037
ELO Change+19-19
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.