January 19, 2021
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Omari Akhmedov | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 233 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Omari Akhmedov's 5-fight experience advantage (13 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Omari Akhmedov for the expected result. Had Tom Breese pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Omari Akhmedov | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 120 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Omari Akhmedov | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:41 | 1:41 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 349 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -39 |
Omari Akhmedov earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:41, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Tom Breese was submitted.
| Metric | Omari Akhmedov | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 38 | 4 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 73 | 6 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 292 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | +104 | -104 |
Omari Akhmedov dominated the striking exchanges with 73 vs 6 total strikes, 25 vs 1 significant strikes, 65.8% vs 25.0% accuracy. Omari Akhmedov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Omari Akhmedov | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:34 | 1:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 21 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 359 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +80 | -80 |
Omari Akhmedov dominated Tom Breese on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:34 of control time, 21 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Omari Akhmedov | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 166 | 103 |
| Activity ELO | 1 199 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -17 |
Omari Akhmedov demonstrated solid activity levels with 166 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Omari Akhmedov capitalized on this activity level, while Tom Breese's 103-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Omari Akhmedov | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 151 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -17 |
Omari Akhmedov started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tom Breese is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Omari Akhmedov | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 112 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

