February 5, 2016
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ovince Saint Preux | Rafael Cavalcante |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 171 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Ovince Saint Preux's 4-fight experience advantage (9 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ovince Saint Preux for the expected result. Had Rafael Cavalcante pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ovince Saint Preux | Rafael Cavalcante |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 095 | 954 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ovince Saint Preux | Rafael Cavalcante |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 388 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Ovince Saint Preux earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Ovince Saint Preux | Rafael Cavalcante |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 51 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 102 | 22 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 106 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 333 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Ovince Saint Preux dominated the striking exchanges with 106 vs 29 total strikes, 51 vs 10 significant strikes. Ovince Saint Preux capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ovince Saint Preux | Rafael Cavalcante |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:35 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 28 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 076 | 868 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Ovince Saint Preux controlled Rafael Cavalcante on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 6:35 of control time, 28 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ovince Saint Preux | Rafael Cavalcante |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 183 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 227 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -10 |
Ovince Saint Preux demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ovince Saint Preux capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Cavalcante's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ovince Saint Preux | Rafael Cavalcante |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 118 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -14 |
Ovince Saint Preux started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Cavalcante is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ovince Saint Preux | Rafael Cavalcante |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 091 | 953 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.