December 15, 2023
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Paddy Pimblett | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 23 |
| Experience Gap | -18 | 18 |
| Experience ELO | 1 254 | 1 179 |
| ELO Change | +76 | -35 |
Paddy Pimblett overcame a 18-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 23 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Tony Ferguson.
| Metric | Paddy Pimblett | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 104 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Paddy Pimblett | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 306 | 1 269 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Paddy Pimblett earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Paddy Pimblett | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 106 | 62 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 165 | 105 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 151 | 90 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 235 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -63 |
Paddy Pimblett dominated the striking exchanges with 151 vs 90 total strikes, 106 vs 62 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Paddy Pimblett capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Paddy Pimblett | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:53 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 40 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 1 209 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Paddy Pimblett controlled Tony Ferguson on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 8:53 of control time, 40 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Paddy Pimblett | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 371 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 168 | 1 306 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -32 |
Paddy Pimblett demonstrated extended layoff with 371 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Paddy Pimblett capitalized on this activity level, while Tony Ferguson's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Paddy Pimblett | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 168 | 1 308 |
| ELO Change | +64 | -33 |
Paddy Pimblett continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Tony Ferguson's now at 0.
| Metric | Paddy Pimblett | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 104 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.