January 18, 2019
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Paige VanZant | Rachael Ostovich |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 043 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Paige VanZant's 5-fight experience advantage (8 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Paige VanZant for the expected result. Had Rachael Ostovich pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Paige VanZant | Rachael Ostovich |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 030 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Paige VanZant | Rachael Ostovich |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:50 | 1:50 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 132 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +58 | -38 |
Paige VanZant earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:50, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Rachael Ostovich was submitted.
| Metric | Paige VanZant | Rachael Ostovich |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 14 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 13 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 114 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Paige VanZant edged the striking exchanges with 38 vs 13 total strikes, 17 vs 10 significant strikes, 63.0% vs 71.4% accuracy. Paige VanZant capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Paige VanZant | Rachael Ostovich |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:32 | 0:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 989 | 802 |
| ELO Change | +126 | -126 |
Paige VanZant dominated Rachael Ostovich on the ground with 0 takedowns, 4:32 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Paige VanZant | Rachael Ostovich |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 370 | 198 |
| Activity ELO | 1 063 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -18 |
Paige VanZant demonstrated extended layoff with 370 days since her last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Paige VanZant capitalized on this activity level, while Rachael Ostovich's 198-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Paige VanZant | Rachael Ostovich |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 045 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Paige VanZant started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rachael Ostovich is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Paige VanZant | Rachael Ostovich |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 030 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.