December 9, 2015
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Paige VanZant | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 044 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +40 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Paige VanZant | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 035 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Paige VanZant | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 2:25 | 2:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 112 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +85 |
Rose Namajunas earned a finish with a Submission in round 5 at 2:25, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Paige VanZant was submitted.
| Metric | Paige VanZant | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 57 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 50 | 100 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 53 | 104 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 076 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -79 | +79 |
Rose Namajunas dominated the striking exchanges with 104 vs 53 total strikes, 57 vs 10 significant strikes, 57.0% vs 20.0% accuracy. Rose Namajunas capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Paige VanZant | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:26 | 16:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 21 |
| Ground ELO | 835 | 1 301 |
| ELO Change | -408 | +408 |
Rose Namajunas dominated Paige VanZant on the ground with 8 vs 0 takedowns, 16:41 of control time, 21 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Paige VanZant | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 97 | 69 |
| Activity ELO | 1 073 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +80 |
Rose Namajunas demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 69 days since her last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Rose Namajunas capitalized on this activity level, while Paige VanZant's 97-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Paige VanZant | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 047 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +30 |
Rose Namajunas extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Paige VanZant is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Paige VanZant | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 035 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.