November 4, 2011
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Papy Abedi | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -15 | 15 |
| Experience ELO | 984 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Thiago Alves's 15-fight experience advantage (16 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Alves for the expected result. Had Papy Abedi pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Papy Abedi | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 986 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Papy Abedi | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:32 | 3:32 |
| Win Type ELO | 991 | 1 375 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +15 |
Thiago Alves earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:32, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Papy Abedi | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 38 | 45 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 30 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 987 | 1 405 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Thiago Alves controlled the striking exchanges with 25 vs 14 significant strikes, 55.6% vs 36.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Thiago Alves capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Papy Abedi | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:40 | 0:31 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 948 | 1 244 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Thiago Alves dominated Papy Abedi on the ground with 0:31 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Papy Abedi | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 162 |
| Activity ELO | 995 | 1 339 |
| ELO Change | -5 | +10 |
Thiago Alves demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Alves capitalized on this activity level, while Papy Abedi's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Papy Abedi | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 990 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +11 |
Thiago Alves started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Papy Abedi is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Papy Abedi | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 985 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

