Papy Abedi vs Thiago Alves

November 4, 2011

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

983
(-17)
Papy Abedi
Winner: Thiago Alves
Submission
Round 1 • 3:32

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Papy Abedi-17
Thiago Alves+19
1255
(+19)
Thiago Alves

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Papy Abedi: -16Thiago Alves: +16

Performance Statistics

MetricPapy AbediThiago Alves
Total UFC Fights116
Experience Gap-1515
Experience ELO9841 200
ELO Change-16+16
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What Happened

Thiago Alves's 15-fight experience advantage (16 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Alves for the expected result. Had Papy Abedi pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Papy Abedi: -14Thiago Alves: +14

Performance Statistics

MetricPapy AbediThiago Alves
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9861 132
ELO Change-14+14
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Papy Abedi: -9Thiago Alves: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricPapy AbediThiago Alves
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish3:323:32
Win Type ELO9911 375
ELO Change-9+15
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What Happened

Thiago Alves earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:32, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Papy Abedi: -13Thiago Alves: +13

Performance Statistics

MetricPapy AbediThiago Alves
Significant Strikes Landed1425
Significant Strikes Attempted3845
Total Strikes Landed1530
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO9871 405
ELO Change-13+13
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What Happened

Thiago Alves controlled the striking exchanges with 25 vs 14 significant strikes, 55.6% vs 36.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Thiago Alves capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Papy Abedi: -52Thiago Alves: +52

Performance Statistics

MetricPapy AbediThiago Alves
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:400:31
Ground Strikes Landed012
Ground ELO9481 244
ELO Change-52+52
💡

What Happened

Thiago Alves dominated Papy Abedi on the ground with 0:31 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Papy Abedi: -5Thiago Alves: +10

Performance Statistics

MetricPapy AbediThiago Alves
Days Since Last FightN/A162
Activity ELO9951 339
ELO Change-5+10
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What Happened

Thiago Alves demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Alves capitalized on this activity level, while Papy Abedi's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Papy Abedi: -10Thiago Alves: +11

Performance Statistics

MetricPapy AbediThiago Alves
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9901 223
ELO Change-10+11
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What Happened

Thiago Alves started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Papy Abedi is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Papy Abedi: -15Thiago Alves: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricPapy AbediThiago Alves
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9851 119
ELO Change-15+15
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.