September 24, 2010
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Pat Audinwood | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 970 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Thiago Tavares's 8-fight experience advantage (9 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Tavares for the expected result. Had Pat Audinwood pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Pat Audinwood | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Pat Audinwood | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:47 | 3:47 |
| Win Type ELO | 965 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +57 |
Thiago Tavares earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:47, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Pat Audinwood | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 50 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 928 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | -72 | +72 |
Thiago Tavares controlled the striking exchanges with 50 vs 6 total strikes, 63.6% vs 37.5% accuracy. Thiago Tavares capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Pat Audinwood | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 2:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 891 | 1 193 |
| ELO Change | -109 | +109 |
Thiago Tavares dominated Pat Audinwood on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:58 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Pat Audinwood | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 257 |
| Activity ELO | 984 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
Thiago Tavares demonstrated standard activity with 257 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Tavares capitalized on this activity level, while Pat Audinwood's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Pat Audinwood | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Thiago Tavares started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Pat Audinwood is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Pat Audinwood | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

