September 30, 2011
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Pat Barry | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 978 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Stefan Struve's 2-fight experience advantage (9 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Stefan Struve for the expected result. Had Pat Barry pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Pat Barry | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 984 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Pat Barry | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:22 | 3:22 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 089 | 1 224 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +57 |
Stefan Struve earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:22, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Pat Barry was submitted.
| Metric | Pat Barry | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 45 | 82 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 31 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 044 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Pat Barry controlled the striking through superior accuracy (66.7% vs 37.8%). However, since Pat Barry lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Stefan Struve's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Pat Barry | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:24 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 922 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Pat Barry | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 97 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 023 | 1 197 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +26 |
Stefan Struve demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Stefan Struve capitalized on this activity level, while Pat Barry's 97-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Pat Barry | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 992 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Stefan Struve started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Pat Barry is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Pat Barry | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

