July 31, 2015
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Patrick Cummins | Rafael Cavalcante |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 080 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Patrick Cummins's 2-fight experience advantage (6 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Patrick Cummins for the expected result. Had Rafael Cavalcante pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Patrick Cummins | Rafael Cavalcante |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 045 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Patrick Cummins | Rafael Cavalcante |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:45 | 0:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 206 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +80 | -40 |
Patrick Cummins gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Patrick Cummins | Rafael Cavalcante |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 49 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 92 | 45 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 102 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 184 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -63 |
Patrick Cummins dominated the striking exchanges with 102 vs 24 total strikes, 49 vs 23 significant strikes. Patrick Cummins capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Patrick Cummins | Rafael Cavalcante |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 8 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 14 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:10 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 24 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 231 | 925 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Patrick Cummins dominated Rafael Cavalcante on the ground with 8 vs 0 takedowns, 7:10 of control time, 24 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Patrick Cummins | Rafael Cavalcante |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 413 |
| Activity ELO | 1 187 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -13 |
Patrick Cummins demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Patrick Cummins capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Cavalcante's 413-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Patrick Cummins | Rafael Cavalcante |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 061 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Patrick Cummins started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Cavalcante is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Patrick Cummins | Rafael Cavalcante |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 045 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.