Patrick Cummins vs Rogerio Nogueira

May 13, 2016

Light Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1070
(-41)
Patrick Cummins
Winner: Rogerio Nogueira
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 4:52

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Patrick Cummins-41
Rogerio Nogueira+46
1143
(+46)
Rogerio Nogueira

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Patrick Cummins: -23Rogerio Nogueira: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricPatrick CumminsRogerio Nogueira
Total UFC Fights89
Experience Gap-11
Experience ELO1 0381 177
ELO Change-23+23
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What Happened

Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (8 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Patrick Cummins: -21Rogerio Nogueira: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricPatrick CumminsRogerio Nogueira
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0071 053
ELO Change-21+21
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Patrick Cummins: -35Rogerio Nogueira: +76

Performance Statistics

MetricPatrick CumminsRogerio Nogueira
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish4:524:52
Win Type ELO1 1521 318
ELO Change-35+76
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What Happened

Rogerio Nogueira earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:52, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Patrick Cummins: -101Rogerio Nogueira: +101

Performance Statistics

MetricPatrick CumminsRogerio Nogueira
Significant Strikes Landed1230
Significant Strikes Attempted3658
Total Strikes Landed1436
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO1 0481 278
ELO Change-101+101
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What Happened

Rogerio Nogueira controlled the striking exchanges with 36 vs 14 total strikes, 30 vs 12 significant strikes, 51.7% vs 33.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Rogerio Nogueira capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Patrick Cummins: -79Rogerio Nogueira: +79

Performance Statistics

MetricPatrick CumminsRogerio Nogueira
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted20
Ground Control Time0:110:12
Ground Strikes Landed05
Ground ELO1 1421 107
ELO Change-79+79
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What Happened

Rogerio Nogueira landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Patrick Cummins: -27Rogerio Nogueira: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricPatrick CumminsRogerio Nogueira
Days Since Last Fight189287
Activity ELO1 1431 098
ELO Change-27+27
💡

What Happened

Rogerio Nogueira demonstrated standard activity with 287 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Rogerio Nogueira capitalized on this activity level, while Patrick Cummins's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Patrick Cummins: -21Rogerio Nogueira: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricPatrick CumminsRogerio Nogueira
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 0241 070
ELO Change-21+23
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What Happened

Rogerio Nogueira started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Patrick Cummins is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Patrick Cummins: -21Rogerio Nogueira: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricPatrick CumminsRogerio Nogueira
Weight ClassLight HeavyweightLight Heavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0061 043
ELO Change-21+21
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.