May 13, 2016
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Patrick Cummins | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 038 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (8 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Patrick Cummins | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 007 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Patrick Cummins | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:52 | 4:52 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 152 | 1 318 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +76 |
Rogerio Nogueira earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:52, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Patrick Cummins | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 36 | 58 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 048 | 1 278 |
| ELO Change | -101 | +101 |
Rogerio Nogueira controlled the striking exchanges with 36 vs 14 total strikes, 30 vs 12 significant strikes, 51.7% vs 33.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Rogerio Nogueira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Patrick Cummins | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:11 | 0:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 142 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -79 | +79 |
Rogerio Nogueira landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Patrick Cummins | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 287 |
| Activity ELO | 1 143 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Rogerio Nogueira demonstrated standard activity with 287 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Rogerio Nogueira capitalized on this activity level, while Patrick Cummins's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Patrick Cummins | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 024 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Rogerio Nogueira started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Patrick Cummins is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Patrick Cummins | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 006 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

