August 5, 2011
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Paul Bradley | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 966 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Rafael Natal's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rafael Natal for the expected result. Had Paul Bradley pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Paul Bradley | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Paul Bradley | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 954 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Rafael Natal earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Paul Bradley | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 43 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 67 | 123 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 19 | 55 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 942 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Rafael Natal controlled the striking exchanges with 55 vs 19 total strikes, 43 vs 13 significant strikes, 35.0% vs 19.4% accuracy. Rafael Natal capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Paul Bradley | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 12 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:35 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 976 | 981 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Rafael Natal did not secure a significant ground advantage against Paul Bradley on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Paul Bradley | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 238 |
| Activity ELO | 978 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +28 |
Rafael Natal demonstrated standard activity with 238 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Rafael Natal capitalized on this activity level, while Paul Bradley's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Paul Bradley | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 978 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Rafael Natal started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Paul Bradley is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Paul Bradley | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.