July 15, 2017
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Paul Felder | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 170 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Paul Felder's 2-fight experience advantage (9 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Paul Felder for the expected result. Had Stevie Ray pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Paul Felder | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 071 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Paul Felder | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:57 | 3:57 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 297 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -35 |
Paul Felder earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:57, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Paul Felder | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 35 | 9 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 301 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +111 | -111 |
Paul Felder controlled the striking exchanges with 23 vs 5 significant strikes, 65.7% vs 55.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Paul Felder capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Paul Felder | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:06 | 1:45 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 183 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Paul Felder landed 1 knockdown followed by 12 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Paul Felder | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 85 |
| Activity ELO | 1 226 | 1 248 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -27 |
Paul Felder demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Paul Felder capitalized on this activity level, while Stevie Ray's 85-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Paul Felder | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 096 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -23 |
Paul Felder extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Stevie Ray is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Paul Felder | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 071 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

