June 12, 2009
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Paul Kelly | Rolando Delgado |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 099 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Paul Kelly's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Paul Kelly for the expected result. Had Rolando Delgado pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Paul Kelly | Rolando Delgado |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 046 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Paul Kelly | Rolando Delgado |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 121 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Paul Kelly earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Paul Kelly | Rolando Delgado |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 74 | 28 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 90 | 42 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 111 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Paul Kelly controlled the striking exchanges with 90 vs 42 total strikes, 32 vs 14 significant strikes. Paul Kelly capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Paul Kelly | Rolando Delgado |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:54 | 4:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 30 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 163 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +83 | -83 |
Paul Kelly controlled Rolando Delgado on the ground with 1 takedown, 7:54 of control time, 30 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Paul Kelly | Rolando Delgado |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 101 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -19 |
Paul Kelly demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Paul Kelly capitalized on this activity level, while Rolando Delgado's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Paul Kelly | Rolando Delgado |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 057 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Paul Kelly extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rolando Delgado is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Paul Kelly | Rolando Delgado |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 046 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.