February 20, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Paul Kelly | Troy Mandaloniz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 072 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Paul Kelly | Troy Mandaloniz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 025 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Paul Kelly | Troy Mandaloniz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 081 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Paul Kelly earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Paul Kelly | Troy Mandaloniz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 71 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 190 | 82 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 192 | 44 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 061 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -63 |
Paul Kelly dominated the striking exchanges with 192 vs 44 total strikes, 71 vs 38 significant strikes, 37.4% vs 46.3% accuracy. Paul Kelly capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Paul Kelly | Troy Mandaloniz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:23 | 2:45 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 15 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 080 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -72 |
Paul Kelly controlled Troy Mandaloniz on the ground with 2 takedowns, 6:23 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Paul Kelly | Troy Mandaloniz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 127 | 441 |
| Activity ELO | 1 053 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -22 |
Paul Kelly demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Paul Kelly capitalized on this activity level, while Troy Mandaloniz's 441-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Paul Kelly | Troy Mandaloniz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 032 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Paul Kelly started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Troy Mandaloniz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Paul Kelly | Troy Mandaloniz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 025 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

