October 22, 2010
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Paul Taylor | Sam Stout |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 926 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Sam Stout's 2-fight experience advantage (10 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sam Stout for the expected result. Had Paul Taylor pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Paul Taylor | Sam Stout |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 964 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Paul Taylor | Sam Stout |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 995 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Sam Stout receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Paul Taylor | Sam Stout |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 140 | 107 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 296 | 295 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 140 | 108 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 010 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Paul Taylor controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (140 vs 108 total strikes), significant strike advantage (140 vs 107), superior accuracy (47.3% vs 36.3%). However, since Paul Taylor lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Sam Stout's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Paul Taylor | Sam Stout |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 888 | 952 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Paul Taylor | Sam Stout |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 343 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 002 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +36 |
Sam Stout demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sam Stout capitalized on this activity level, while Paul Taylor's 343-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Paul Taylor | Sam Stout |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 973 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Sam Stout started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Paul Taylor is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Paul Taylor | Sam Stout |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 964 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

