February 16, 2024
Middleweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Paulo Costa | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 21 |
| Experience Gap | -12 | 12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 237 | 1 371 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Robert Whittaker's 12-fight experience advantage (21 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Robert Whittaker for the expected result. Had Paulo Costa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Paulo Costa | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 085 | 1 208 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Paulo Costa | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 406 | 1 590 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Robert Whittaker earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Paulo Costa | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 67 | 95 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 151 | 175 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 67 | 95 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 379 | 1 481 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Robert Whittaker controlled the striking exchanges with 95 vs 67 total strikes, 95 vs 67 significant strikes, 54.3% vs 44.4% accuracy. Robert Whittaker capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Paulo Costa | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 281 | 1 423 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Paulo Costa | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 547 | 225 |
| Activity ELO | 1 181 | 1 401 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +13 |
Robert Whittaker demonstrated standard activity with 225 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Robert Whittaker capitalized on this activity level, while Paulo Costa's 547-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Paulo Costa | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 155 | 1 395 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +10 |
Robert Whittaker started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Paulo Costa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Paulo Costa | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 074 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.