May 31, 2024
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Paulo Costa | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 22 |
| Experience Gap | -12 | 12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 210 | 1 317 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Sean Strickland's 12-fight experience advantage (22 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sean Strickland for the expected result. Had Paulo Costa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Paulo Costa | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 072 | 1 237 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Paulo Costa | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 398 | 1 502 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Sean Strickland receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Paulo Costa | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 158 | 182 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 266 | 402 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 158 | 182 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 358 | 1 457 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Sean Strickland controlled the striking exchanges with 182 vs 158 total strikes, 182 vs 158 significant strikes, 45.3% vs 59.4% accuracy. Sean Strickland capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Paulo Costa | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 264 | 1 360 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Paulo Costa | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 174 | 1 473 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +14 |
Sean Strickland demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sean Strickland capitalized on this activity level, while Paulo Costa's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Paulo Costa | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 139 | 1 262 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +17 |
Sean Strickland started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Paulo Costa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Paulo Costa | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 058 | 1 168 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.