September 12, 2014
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Paulo Thiago | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 942 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +44 |
Sean Spencer overcame a 8-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 13 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Paulo Thiago.
| Metric | Paulo Thiago | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 958 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Paulo Thiago | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 984 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Sean Spencer earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Paulo Thiago | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 63 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 111 | 159 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 46 | 105 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 845 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Sean Spencer dominated the striking exchanges with 105 vs 46 total strikes, 63 vs 36 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Sean Spencer capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Paulo Thiago | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:39 | 4:56 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 883 | 942 |
| ELO Change | -82 | +82 |
Sean Spencer landed 1 knockdown followed by 12 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Paulo Thiago | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 036 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +27 |
Sean Spencer demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Sean Spencer capitalized on this activity level, while Paulo Thiago's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Paulo Thiago | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 976 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Sean Spencer started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Paulo Thiago is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Paulo Thiago | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 958 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.