May 30, 2014
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Pawel Pawlak | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 961 | 950 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Peter Sobotta's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Peter Sobotta for the expected result. Had Pawel Pawlak pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Pawel Pawlak | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 975 | 966 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Pawel Pawlak | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 946 | 954 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +54 |
Peter Sobotta earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Pawel Pawlak | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 47 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 84 | 101 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 65 | 121 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 946 | 933 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +54 |
Peter Sobotta dominated the striking exchanges with 121 vs 65 total strikes, 47 vs 21 significant strikes, 46.5% vs 25.0% accuracy. Peter Sobotta capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Pawel Pawlak | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 7:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 878 | 979 |
| ELO Change | -122 | +122 |
Peter Sobotta dominated Pawel Pawlak on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 7:58 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Pawel Pawlak | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 1 295 |
| Activity ELO | 976 | 972 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +22 |
Peter Sobotta demonstrated extended layoff with 1295 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Peter Sobotta capitalized on this activity level, while Pawel Pawlak's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Pawel Pawlak | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 976 | 969 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +27 |
Peter Sobotta started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Pawel Pawlak is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Pawel Pawlak | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 975 | 966 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.