January 18, 2025
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Payton Talbott | Raoni Barcelos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 079 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Raoni Barcelos's 8-fight experience advantage (12 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Raoni Barcelos for the expected result. Had Payton Talbott pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Payton Talbott | Raoni Barcelos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 037 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Payton Talbott | Raoni Barcelos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 167 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Raoni Barcelos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Payton Talbott | Raoni Barcelos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 49 | 62 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 84 | 85 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 59 | 91 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 213 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Raoni Barcelos controlled the striking exchanges with 91 vs 59 total strikes, 62 vs 49 significant strikes, 72.9% vs 58.3% accuracy. Raoni Barcelos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Payton Talbott | Raoni Barcelos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 8 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 15 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:25 | 9:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 39 |
| Ground ELO | 1 050 | 1 301 |
| ELO Change | -82 | +82 |
Raoni Barcelos dominated Payton Talbott on the ground with 8 vs 1 takedowns, 9:43 of control time, 39 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Payton Talbott | Raoni Barcelos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 330 |
| Activity ELO | 1 087 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Raoni Barcelos demonstrated standard activity with 330 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Raoni Barcelos capitalized on this activity level, while Payton Talbott's 204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Payton Talbott | Raoni Barcelos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 050 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Raoni Barcelos extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Payton Talbott is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Payton Talbott | Raoni Barcelos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 037 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.