November 20, 2003
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Pedro Rizzo | Ricco Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 140 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Pedro Rizzo's 7-fight experience advantage (14 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Pedro Rizzo for the expected result. Had Ricco Rodriguez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Pedro Rizzo | Ricco Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 093 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Pedro Rizzo | Ricco Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 272 | 1 271 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
Pedro Rizzo earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Pedro Rizzo | Ricco Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 15 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 93 | 33 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 45 | 27 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 202 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Pedro Rizzo controlled the striking exchanges with 30 vs 15 significant strikes, 32.3% vs 45.5% accuracy. Pedro Rizzo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Pedro Rizzo | Ricco Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:52 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 19 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 131 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | +97 | -97 |
Pedro Rizzo controlled Ricco Rodriguez on the ground with 5:52 of control time, 19 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Pedro Rizzo | Ricco Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 266 |
| Activity ELO | 1 261 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -19 |
Pedro Rizzo demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Pedro Rizzo capitalized on this activity level, while Ricco Rodriguez's 266-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Pedro Rizzo | Ricco Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 105 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -24 |
Pedro Rizzo extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ricco Rodriguez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Pedro Rizzo | Ricco Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 070 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.