June 19, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Peter Sobotta | Steve Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 986 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Peter Sobotta's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Peter Sobotta for the expected result. Had Steve Kennedy pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Peter Sobotta | Steve Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 989 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Peter Sobotta | Steve Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:57 | 2:57 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 037 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +83 | -48 |
Peter Sobotta earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:57, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Peter Sobotta | Steve Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 12 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 7 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 983 | 950 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Peter Sobotta slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 46.2% vs 25.0% accuracy. Peter Sobotta capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Peter Sobotta | Steve Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:21 | 0:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 054 | 925 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -75 |
Peter Sobotta controlled Steve Kennedy on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:21 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Peter Sobotta | Steve Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 385 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 992 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -23 |
Peter Sobotta demonstrated extended layoff with 385 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Peter Sobotta capitalized on this activity level, while Steve Kennedy's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Peter Sobotta | Steve Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 996 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -23 |
Peter Sobotta extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Steve Kennedy is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Peter Sobotta | Steve Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 989 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.