January 23, 2015
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Phil Davis | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 206 | 1 248 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Ryan Bader's 3-fight experience advantage (16 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ryan Bader for the expected result. Had Phil Davis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Phil Davis | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 116 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Phil Davis | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 344 | 1 413 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Ryan Bader receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Phil Davis | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 129 | 117 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 51 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 394 | 1 343 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Phil Davis controlled the striking through superior volume (51 vs 29 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (35 vs 26). However, since Phil Davis lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Ryan Bader's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Phil Davis | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:29 | 0:45 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 418 | 1 459 |
| ELO Change | -78 | +78 |
Ryan Bader controlled Phil Davis on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:45 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Phil Davis | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 92 | 162 |
| Activity ELO | 1 272 | 1 339 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +35 |
Ryan Bader demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Ryan Bader capitalized on this activity level, while Phil Davis's 92-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Phil Davis | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 158 | 1 205 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +30 |
Ryan Bader extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Phil Davis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Phil Davis | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 110 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.