Phil Davis vs Wagner Prado

October 12, 2012

Light Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1209
(+27)
Phil Davis
Winner: Phil Davis
Submission
Round 2 • 4:29

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Phil Davis+27
Wagner Prado-23
977
(-23)
Wagner Prado

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Phil Davis: +18Wagner Prado: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricPhil DavisWagner Prado
Total UFC Fights82
Experience Gap6-6
Experience ELO1 177982
ELO Change+18-18
💡

What Happened

Phil Davis's 6-fight experience advantage (8 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Phil Davis for the expected result. Had Wagner Prado pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Phil Davis: +16Wagner Prado: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricPhil DavisWagner Prado
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 100984
ELO Change+16-16
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Phil Davis: +27Wagner Prado: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricPhil DavisWagner Prado
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish4:294:29
Win Type ELO1 256982
ELO Change+27-18
💡

What Happened

Phil Davis earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:29, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Wagner Prado was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Phil Davis: +30Wagner Prado: -30

Performance Statistics

MetricPhil DavisWagner Prado
Significant Strikes Landed292
Significant Strikes Attempted4911
Total Strikes Landed592
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 341970
ELO Change+30-30
💡

What Happened

Phil Davis dominated the striking exchanges with 59 vs 2 total strikes, 29 vs 2 significant strikes, 59.2% vs 18.2% accuracy. Phil Davis capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Phil Davis: +60Wagner Prado: -60

Performance Statistics

MetricPhil DavisWagner Prado
Takedowns Landed50
Takedowns Attempted60
Ground Control Time5:540:00
Ground Strikes Landed210
Ground ELO1 355940
ELO Change+60-60
💡

What Happened

Phil Davis dominated Wagner Prado on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 5:54 of control time, 21 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Phil Davis: +33Wagner Prado: -11

Performance Statistics

MetricPhil DavisWagner Prado
Days Since Last Fight7070
Activity ELO1 212989
ELO Change+33-11
💡

What Happened

Phil Davis demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Phil Davis capitalized on this activity level, while Wagner Prado's 70-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Phil Davis: +16Wagner Prado: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricPhil DavisWagner Prado
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 131986
ELO Change+16-14
💡

What Happened

Phil Davis started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Wagner Prado is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Phil Davis: +16Wagner Prado: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricPhil DavisWagner Prado
Weight ClassLight HeavyweightLight Heavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 097984
ELO Change+16-16
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.