October 12, 2012
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Phil Davis | Wagner Prado |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 177 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Phil Davis's 6-fight experience advantage (8 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Phil Davis for the expected result. Had Wagner Prado pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Phil Davis | Wagner Prado |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 100 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Phil Davis | Wagner Prado |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:29 | 4:29 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 256 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -18 |
Phil Davis earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:29, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Wagner Prado was submitted.
| Metric | Phil Davis | Wagner Prado |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 49 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 59 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 341 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Phil Davis dominated the striking exchanges with 59 vs 2 total strikes, 29 vs 2 significant strikes, 59.2% vs 18.2% accuracy. Phil Davis capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Phil Davis | Wagner Prado |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:54 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 21 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 355 | 940 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Phil Davis dominated Wagner Prado on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 5:54 of control time, 21 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Phil Davis | Wagner Prado |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 70 | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 1 212 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -11 |
Phil Davis demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Phil Davis capitalized on this activity level, while Wagner Prado's 70-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Phil Davis | Wagner Prado |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 131 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -14 |
Phil Davis started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Wagner Prado is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Phil Davis | Wagner Prado |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 097 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

