December 28, 2012
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Philip De Fries | Todd Duffee |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 039 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +35 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Philip De Fries | Todd Duffee |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 998 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Philip De Fries | Todd Duffee |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:04 | 2:04 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 029 | 1 211 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +74 |
Todd Duffee earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:04, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Philip De Fries | Todd Duffee |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 31 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 12 | 22 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 909 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -94 | +94 |
Todd Duffee controlled the striking exchanges with 20 vs 7 significant strikes, 64.5% vs 53.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Todd Duffee capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Philip De Fries | Todd Duffee |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:54 | 0:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 105 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Todd Duffee did not secure a significant ground advantage against Philip De Fries on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:33 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Philip De Fries | Todd Duffee |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | 946 |
| Activity ELO | 1 012 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +21 |
Todd Duffee demonstrated extended layoff with 946 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Todd Duffee capitalized on this activity level, while Philip De Fries's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Philip De Fries | Todd Duffee |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 002 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Todd Duffee started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Philip De Fries is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Philip De Fries | Todd Duffee |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 998 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

