February 5, 2010
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Phillipe Nover | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 917 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Rob Emerson's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rob Emerson for the expected result. Had Phillipe Nover pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Phillipe Nover | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 938 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Phillipe Nover | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 893 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Rob Emerson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Phillipe Nover | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 48 | 53 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 36 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 852 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
Rob Emerson slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 26 vs 19 significant strikes, 49.1% vs 39.6% accuracy. Rob Emerson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Phillipe Nover | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 11 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:21 | 9:08 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 761 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -76 | +76 |
Rob Emerson dominated Phillipe Nover on the ground with 7 vs 0 takedowns, 9:08 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Phillipe Nover | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 260 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 939 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +36 |
Rob Emerson demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rob Emerson capitalized on this activity level, while Phillipe Nover's 260-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Phillipe Nover | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 939 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Rob Emerson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Phillipe Nover is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Phillipe Nover | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 938 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.