June 13, 2014
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rafael Cavalcante | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -11 | 11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 011 | 1 189 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Ryan Bader's 11-fight experience advantage (14 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ryan Bader for the expected result. Had Rafael Cavalcante pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Rafael Cavalcante | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 988 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rafael Cavalcante | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 111 | 1 372 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Ryan Bader earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Rafael Cavalcante | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 53 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 37 | 94 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 107 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 036 | 1 293 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Ryan Bader dominated the striking exchanges with 107 vs 20 total strikes, 53 vs 10 significant strikes, 56.4% vs 27.0% accuracy. Ryan Bader capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rafael Cavalcante | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 16 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:31 | 8:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 26 |
| Ground ELO | 966 | 1 306 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Ryan Bader dominated Rafael Cavalcante on the ground with 7 vs 0 takedowns, 8:20 of control time, 26 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Cavalcante | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 022 | 1 261 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +12 |
Ryan Bader demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ryan Bader capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Cavalcante's 217-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Cavalcante | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 993 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +16 |
Ryan Bader extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Cavalcante is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rafael Cavalcante | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 987 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.