June 7, 2013
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rafael Cavalcante | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 978 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Thiago Silva's 10-fight experience advantage (11 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Silva for the expected result. Had Rafael Cavalcante pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Rafael Cavalcante | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 982 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rafael Cavalcante | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:29 | 4:29 |
| Win Type ELO | 985 | 1 296 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +32 |
Thiago Silva earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:29, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Rafael Cavalcante | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 61 | 75 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 24 | 37 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 948 | 1 222 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Thiago Silva controlled the striking exchanges with 37 vs 24 significant strikes, 49.3% vs 39.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Thiago Silva capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rafael Cavalcante | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 960 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Rafael Cavalcante | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 210 |
| Activity ELO | 987 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +17 |
Thiago Silva demonstrated standard activity with 210 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Silva capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Cavalcante's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Cavalcante | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +19 |
Thiago Silva started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Cavalcante is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rafael Cavalcante | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 982 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

