Rafael Cavalcante vs Thiago Silva

June 7, 2013

Light Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

976
(-24)
Rafael Cavalcante
Winner: Thiago Silva
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 4:29

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Rafael Cavalcante-24
Thiago Silva+27
1142
(+27)
Thiago Silva

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Rafael Cavalcante: -22Thiago Silva: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricRafael CavalcanteThiago Silva
Total UFC Fights111
Experience Gap-1010
Experience ELO9781 132
ELO Change-22+22
💡

What Happened

Thiago Silva's 10-fight experience advantage (11 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Silva for the expected result. Had Rafael Cavalcante pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Rafael Cavalcante: -18Thiago Silva: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricRafael CavalcanteThiago Silva
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9821 065
ELO Change-18+18
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Rafael Cavalcante: -15Thiago Silva: +32

Performance Statistics

MetricRafael CavalcanteThiago Silva
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish4:294:29
Win Type ELO9851 296
ELO Change-15+32
💡

What Happened

Thiago Silva earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:29, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Rafael Cavalcante: -52Thiago Silva: +52

Performance Statistics

MetricRafael CavalcanteThiago Silva
Significant Strikes Landed2437
Significant Strikes Attempted6175
Total Strikes Landed2437
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO9481 222
ELO Change-52+52
💡

What Happened

Thiago Silva controlled the striking exchanges with 37 vs 24 significant strikes, 49.3% vs 39.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Thiago Silva capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Rafael Cavalcante: -40Thiago Silva: +40

Performance Statistics

MetricRafael CavalcanteThiago Silva
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:000:03
Ground Strikes Landed02
Ground ELO9601 123
ELO Change-40+40
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Rafael Cavalcante: -13Thiago Silva: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricRafael CavalcanteThiago Silva
Days Since Last FightN/A210
Activity ELO9871 149
ELO Change-13+17
💡

What Happened

Thiago Silva demonstrated standard activity with 210 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Silva capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Cavalcante's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Rafael Cavalcante: -17Thiago Silva: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricRafael CavalcanteThiago Silva
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9831 086
ELO Change-17+19
💡

What Happened

Thiago Silva started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Cavalcante is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Rafael Cavalcante: -18Thiago Silva: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricRafael CavalcanteThiago Silva
Weight ClassLight HeavyweightLight Heavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9821 062
ELO Change-18+18
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.