March 4, 2022
Catch Weight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 31 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | 18 | -18 |
| Experience ELO | 1 292 | 1 179 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Rafael Dos Anjos's 18-fight experience advantage (31 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rafael Dos Anjos for the expected result. Had Renato Moicano pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 216 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 455 | 1 274 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Rafael Dos Anjos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 149 | 88 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 286 | 172 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 179 | 99 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 406 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Rafael Dos Anjos dominated the striking exchanges with 179 vs 99 total strikes, 149 vs 88 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Rafael Dos Anjos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 15 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 13:22 | 0:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 58 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 483 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | +94 | -94 |
Rafael Dos Anjos dominated Renato Moicano on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 13:22 of control time, 58 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 476 | 21 |
| Activity ELO | 1 453 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | +6 | -7 |
Rafael Dos Anjos demonstrated extended layoff with 476 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Rafael Dos Anjos capitalized on this activity level, while Renato Moicano's 21-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 262 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -14 |
Rafael Dos Anjos extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Renato Moicano is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 164 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.