December 15, 2017
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 24 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 335 | 1 299 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Rafael Dos Anjos's 5-fight experience advantage (24 vs 19 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rafael Dos Anjos for the expected result. Had Robbie Lawler pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 280 | 1 253 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 598 | 1 498 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Rafael Dos Anjos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 172 | 86 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 291 | 212 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 219 | 137 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 496 | 1 424 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Rafael Dos Anjos dominated the striking exchanges with 219 vs 137 total strikes, 172 vs 86 significant strikes, 59.1% vs 40.6% accuracy. Rafael Dos Anjos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:53 | 4:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 586 | 1 343 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Rafael Dos Anjos controlled Robbie Lawler on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 7:53 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 99 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 544 | 1 400 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -16 |
Rafael Dos Anjos demonstrated solid activity levels with 99 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rafael Dos Anjos capitalized on this activity level, while Robbie Lawler's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 304 | 1 236 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -20 |
Rafael Dos Anjos extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Robbie Lawler is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 202 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.