November 4, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 21 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 256 | 1 361 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +44 |
Tony Ferguson overcame a 8-fight experience disadvantage (13 vs 21 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Rafael Dos Anjos.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 234 | 1 207 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 504 | 1 500 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Tony Ferguson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 121 | 199 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 276 | 401 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 126 | 200 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 405 | 1 438 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Tony Ferguson dominated the striking exchanges with 200 vs 126 total strikes, 199 vs 121 significant strikes. Tony Ferguson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:30 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 426 | 1 468 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Tony Ferguson did not secure a significant ground advantage against Rafael Dos Anjos on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 122 | 116 |
| Activity ELO | 1 437 | 1 452 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +64 |
Tony Ferguson demonstrated solid activity levels with 116 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tony Ferguson capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Dos Anjos's 122-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 9 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 245 | 1 367 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +75 |
Tony Ferguson continued building serious momentum with a 9-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Rafael Dos Anjos's now at 0.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 148 | 1 201 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.