March 31, 2009
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 945 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Tyson Griffin's 6-fight experience advantage (8 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tyson Griffin for the expected result. Had Rafael Dos Anjos pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 963 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 945 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Tyson Griffin earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 69 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 134 | 213 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 29 | 101 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 916 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Tyson Griffin dominated the striking exchanges with 101 vs 29 total strikes, 69 vs 26 significant strikes, 32.4% vs 19.4% accuracy. Tyson Griffin capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 2:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 943 | 1 208 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Tyson Griffin controlled Rafael Dos Anjos on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:51 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 137 | 158 |
| Activity ELO | 971 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +20 |
Tyson Griffin demonstrated solid activity levels with 158 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tyson Griffin capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Dos Anjos's 137-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 965 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +17 |
Tyson Griffin started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Dos Anjos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rafael Dos Anjos | Tyson Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 963 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.